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Modelling impacts of climate change on selected South African crop farming systems
Expanded Title:The agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change (Kaiser et al., 1993; Darwin et al., 1995; IISD, 1997; IPCC, 2001; Mukheibir et al., 2003; IFPRI, 2009). In most regions of South Africa, the availability of water is the most limiting factor for agricultural production. RSA experiences a high risk climatic environment, with a highly variable and spatially uneven rainfall distribution, as well as climate-related extremes. Any change in rainfall attributes could have wide-ranging implications for commercial and subsistence food and fibre production, as well as for the GDP, employment and foreign exchange earnings. At present RSA’s agricultural sector experiences multiple stressors, including (but not limited to) variable rainfall, widespread poverty, environmental degradation, uncertainties surrounding land reform, limited access to capital, including markets, infrastructure and technology, and HIV/AIDS. Climate change is superimposed upon all these stressors and is anticipated to exacerbate these issues, and in combination with low adaptive capacity, the South African agriculture sector through the value chain is highly vulnerable to effects of climate change and the associated increase in climate variability. There has been limited research on climate change and related impacts on livelihood and the natural resources in some African countries (Environmental Alert, 2010; Louw et al., 2012). However, evidence from global climate models developed thus far suggests that the agricultural sector in the Southern African region is highly sensitive to future climate shifts and increased climate variability (Gbetibouo et al., 2004). Therefore, Schulze (2011) suggests that because of the complexity of South Africa’s physiography, climate and socio-economic milieu, detailed local scale analyses are needed to assess potential impacts of climate change.
Date Published:14/11/2016
Document Type:Research Report
Document Subjects:Agricultural Water - Small holder irrigation
Document Keywords:Climate
Document Format:Report
Document File Type:pdf
Research Report Type:Standard
WRC Report No:1882/1/16
ISBN No:978-1-4312-0835-7
Authors:Johnston PA; Oosthuizen HJ; Schulze RE; Crespo O; Louw DB; Tadross MA; Waagsaether K; Arowolo S
Project No:K5/1882
Organizations:University of Cape Town; OABS Development (Pty) Ltd; University of KwaZuIu-Natal; University of Stellenbosch
Document Size:21 544 KB
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