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Improvement of early preparedness and early warning systems for extreme climatic events – flood warnings
Expanded Title:This project endeavoured to enhance the early warning system against flash floods in South Africa, which is based on the South African Flash Flood Guidance (SAFFG) system. The SAFFG system models on an hourly basis the likely hydrological response of small river basins to rainfall as estimated in near real time by weather radar systems and the Meteosat weather satellite. The performance of the SAFFG system was investigated and the problem areas identified. This led to the development of an enhanced satellite rainfall estimation algorithm to address the serious underestimation of stratiform rain in the Western Cape Province, by combining convective rainfall estimation from satellite with stratiform rainfall forecasts from the Unified Model. Experiments were also conducted to improve the radar-rainfall relationships. A comparison of the soil moisture modelling of SAFFG with the PyTopkapi model revealed some errors in the calibration that were addressed subsequently by the SAFFG developers. The lack of an outlook of potential flash floods beyond the next six hours was addressed by the development of an ensemble forecasting system based on a single deterministic model. Understanding user needs was also an important focus of the project. These user needs were determined through sessions with various municipal and provincial disaster management centres. This led to the development of various user-oriented products, such as a system to forecast the likely impact of a flash flood, and not only the occurrence of the flash flood, by linking the potential of flash floods from the SAFFG model with socioeconomic vulnerability indicators through an impact model. The study was concluded with recommendations related to the enhancement of the entire flash flood early warning system.
Date Published:15/04/2015
Document Type:Research Report
Document Subjects:Water Resource Management/IWRM - Catchment Management
Document Keywords:Climate, Hydrology
Document Format:Report
Document File Type:pdf
Research Report Type:Standard
WRC Report No:2068/1/15
ISBN No:978‐1‐4312‐0664‐3
Authors:Poolman E; de Coning E; Becker E; Pegram G; Sinclair S; Kroese N
Project No:K5/2068
Organizations:South African Weather Service; Pegram and Associates (Pty) Ltd
Document Size:9 206 KB
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