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Predictability and attribution of the South African seasonal climate
Expanded Title:The project aims to characterise the degree to which the predictability of seasonal forecasts varies from year to year, and to identify causes of such variations; and to characterise the degree to which anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have altered the chance of extreme months. A case study extending the predictability and attribution methods to a hydrological case study: the streamflow discharge into the Okavango Delta, Botswana is also dealt with. Findings were that ranges of simulated temperatures exhibit a strong east-west gradient in the case of precipitation, and a strong coastal-inland gradient in the case of temperature. While the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific are linked to variations in the spread of the simulations, robust relationships are not found for other areas of the ocean considered to strongly influence South African climate. The spread of model simulations shows long-term narrowing and widening trends for both monthly rainfall and temperature, with the nature of the trends varying as a function of location and season. It is found that event attribution estimates are not sensitive to the choice of climate model used, or to downscaling methods when examining the chance of flooding events in a hydrological system.
Date Published:01/04/2015
Document Type:Research Report
Document Subjects:Water Resource Management/IWRM - Catchment Management, Water Resource Management/IWRM - Hydrogeology
Document Keywords:Hydrology
Document Format:Report
Document File Type:pdf
Research Report Type:Standard
WRC Report No:2067/1/15
ISBN No:978-1-4312-0633-9
Authors:Lawal K; Wolski P; Lennard C; Tadross M; Abiodun B; Angélil O; Mota RC; Stone D
Project No:K5/2067
Originator:WRC
Organizations:University of Cape Town; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Switzerland; Ciencias Atmosféricas, Universidad Veracruzana, Veracruz, Mexico; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, U.S.A
Document Size:4 530 KB
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