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Implementing uncertainty analysis in water resources assessment and planning
Expanded Title:Internationally, the science of hydrology has embraced the concepts of uncertainty, largely because of the enormous contribution that was made by the IAHS PUB decade. While South Africa has a long history of using models for water resources assessments, uncertainty approaches are relatively new to the country and have not been embraced by either scientists or practitioners. This report provides the details of new methods of incorporating uncertainty into water resources estimation methods. The overall conclusion is that the project has demonstrated that including uncertainty analysis as part of the widely used Pitman hydrological model is a practical proposition and that the uncertainty outputs can be successfully linked to existing water resources yield models. The final chapter of the report offers some initial ideas about the use of uncertain information in decision making. Throughout this project attempts have been made to achieve a balance between the development of new scientific approaches based on sound hydrological principles and international experience together with the practical considerations associated with the use of models for water resources assessments, planning and management. The degree to which these overall objectives have been achieved can only really be measured by the impact of the project outcomes on the approaches applied in the future. The report makes an important recommendation that the hydrological science and water resources practice communities within South Africa (including those organisations that fund research and practice) start to take the concepts of uncertainty far more seriously than they have in the past.
Date Published:01/02/2015
Document Type:Research Report
Document Subjects:Water Resource Management/IWRM - Catchment Management, R & D - Research capacity
Document Keywords:Guidelines, Hydrology
Document Format:Report
Document File Type:pdf
Research Report Type:Standard
WRC Report No:2056-1-14
ISBN No:978-1-4312-0629-2
Authors:Hughes DA; Mohobane T; Mallory SJL
Project No:K5/2056
Organizations:Rhodes University; IWR Water Resources Pty (Ltd), Pretoria
Document Size:1 593 KB
Related Documents:Understanding and modelling surface water-groundwater interactions
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