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Development of defensible regional climate change projections for adaptation and policy
Expanded Title:This project addresses issues underlying the critical questions regarding assessment of the regional climate to support decision making processes. At the regional scale our choices are complicated by the large uncertainties in the degree and rate of change and our incomplete knowledge of how human and physical systems will respond. The methodological approach adopted considers the historical changes from observed data, changes in the driving circulation patterns, the projected changes at the regional scale from the Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and from the information downscaled from the GCMs. Findings indicate that the CMIP5 models have some skill in simulating the leading mode of global variability: ENSO. Most of the models tend to show dry conditions (although weaker in magnitude) over southern Africa during strong El Niños, and the newer versions of the GCMs are starting to produce marginally more realistic results. Also, biases between models and the diversity of frequency of regional circulation models highlight the critical importance of not using any single one model. A clear message of warming over South Africa is seen in the raw GCM output as well as both downscaling methods. Warming is projected to be most intense over the drier parts of the interior, while less intense along the coast.
Date Published:01/02/2015
Document Type:Research Report
Document Keywords:Hydropower
Document Format:Report
Document File Type:pdf
Research Report Type:Standard
WRC Report No:2061/1/14
ISBN No:978-1-4312-0632-2
Authors:Hewitson B; Jack C; Coop L; Blamey R; Steynor A
Organizations:University of Cape Town
Document Size:8 759 KB
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