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A short term heavy rainfall forecasting system for South Africa with first implementation over the Gauteng Province
Expanded Title:The aim of this project was to develop an ingredients-based rainfall forecasting system for the summer rainfall areas of South Africa and specifically the Gauteng Province in order to better understand heavy rainfall occurrence over the province. The methodology involved investigation of the thermodynamic conditions associated with heavy rainfall over Gauteng, construction of lightning climatology over Gauteng, identification of the lightning characteristics associated with heavy rainfall and development of a map which indicates convective initiation over South Africa using lightening data. Then construct a short term rainfall ensemble for verification of results using a summer rainfall season. The findings were that the January months have the highest monthly average rainfall as well as the highest number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days. The central and north-western parts of the province experience the most events where the rainfall at a single station surpasses 75 and 115 mm and that significantly high seasonal rainfall is associated with above normal rainfall in late summer. December is the month with the highest number of lightning strokes and March the least. When average heavy rainfall occurs over Gauteng there is significantly more lightning than the average value.
Date Published:01/12/2012
Document Type:Research Report
Document Subjects:Water Resource Management/IWRM - Hydrogeology, R & D - Water and Energy
Document Format:Report
Document File Type:pdf
Research Report Type:Standard
WRC Report No:1906/1/12
ISBN No:978-1-4312-0353-6
Authors:Dyson LL; Engelbrecht CJ; Turner K; Landman S
Project No:K5/1906
Organizations:Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology University of Pretoria; ARC-Institute for Soil, Climate and Water; South African Weather Service
Document Size:4 758 KB
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